Allain said scientific models predict a decrease in tropical tuna biomasses in the Pacific as well as a shift of the biomasses of tropical tuna towards the east, and towards the south for albacore.
Climate change is going to have a strong impact at the national levels for coastal countries in the Pacific, Allain pointed out. The main driver of changes is the warming temperature, while ocean acidification is predicted to have a limited impact, according to Allain.
Models are being improved to upgrade the accuracy and confidence of the forecast for better management and adaptation. Models can be used to project the impact of fishing that remains the major external driver of the tuna population dynamics, Allain said.
Other talks from the Indofish Tuna 2018 conference are available on Undercurrent News.
Wez Norris (FFA) talks about, for the first time, looking at opportunities and rights on the high seas for fishery fleets, at the 14th Regular Session of the Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission.